Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.690424 4.004536 4.349604 4.760039 5.239275 5.786732 6.467740
2025-01-26 3.305524 3.726108 4.219927 4.853873 5.663930 6.691525 8.143023
2025-02-02 3.121793 3.615306 4.223454 5.051113 6.189068 7.770943 10.294754
2025-02-09 2.960013 3.498119 4.186193 5.167145 6.600938 8.762981 12.645248
2025-02-16 2.770837 3.320772 4.042443 5.106413 6.734657 9.353147 14.556003
2025-02-23 2.621427 3.179319 3.927914 5.064611 6.878127 9.978010 16.807261
2025-03-02 2.490525 3.050662 3.816471 5.009115 6.983115 10.552016 19.260168
2025-03-09 2.378043 2.938172 3.716675 4.956847 7.079860 11.128947 22.100036
2025-03-16 2.290379 2.853682 3.649285 4.945521 7.241903 11.876344 26.033982
2025-03-23 2.236941 2.813391 3.642470 5.028603 7.585571 13.118263 33.021617
2025-03-30 2.143953 2.710585 3.533885 4.930751 7.568912 13.523256 37.412433
2025-04-06 2.055078 2.609267 3.421188 4.815512 7.501144 13.786024 41.677147
2025-04-13 1.957376 2.492293 3.280362 4.644858 7.308677 13.702498 44.293188
2025-04-20 1.926131 2.471923 3.288604 4.735677 7.672080 15.271618 62.000004
2025-04-27 1.917703 2.484578 3.348951 4.924899 8.284432 17.914374 109.298246
2025-05-04 1.893345 2.471473 3.366338 5.036107 8.745624 20.397736 212.588834
2025-05-11 1.838391 2.408762 3.298321 4.977909 8.790373 21.381409 341.357882
2025-05-18 1.790445 2.354932 3.242144 4.937839 8.874593 22.603931 723.716642
2025-05-25 1.743192 2.300332 3.181857 4.884629 8.917236 23.699950 2607.668720
2025-06-01 1.699321 2.249423 3.125338 4.834499 8.961012 24.864273 NaN
2025-06-08 1.664668 2.211783 3.089598 4.823635 9.110727 26.727002 NaN
2025-06-15 1.646775 2.199982 3.097561 4.903316 9.531433 30.617048 NaN
2025-06-22 1.602173 2.143860 3.025677 4.809465 9.431747 31.197803 NaN